Tech and Politics Driving North America’s Economic Future
The intersection of tech policy and politics in North America is increasingly shaping the future of the region's economy. With the 2024 elections in the U.S. and Mexico, as well as ongoing developments in Canada, the direction of tech and innovation is uncertain. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump—both vying for the U.S. presidency—present contrasting visions for technology and the economy, while Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico's president-elect, is laying the groundwork for the Segundo Piso de la Cuarta Transformación.
These developments will significantly impact emerging tech hubs in regions like Florida, Texas, British Columbia, Jalisco, Querétaro, and Monterrey as well as key economic drivers like green energy and intellectual property protections under the USMCA (known in Mexico as TEMEC).
1. U.S. Elections: Diverging Tech Visions
As the 2024 presidential race heats up, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump offer differing paths for America's tech future. Harris, who has positioned herself as a proponent of responsible AI regulation and privacy protections, has focused on ensuring that technological innovation benefits everyday people through a more equitable economy. Her tenure as Vice President and her push for ethical AI regulation reflect her broader vision for a people-centered economy.
Meanwhile, Trump’s platform centers on an aggressive deregulation of AI, especially in military applications. His campaign has proposed a "Manhattan Project" for AI, seeking to accelerate America's leadership in tech through defense technology and minimal restrictions. The concern here is that this strategy could undermine antitrust efforts to break up tech monopolies, favoring Big Tech while limiting opportunities for smaller innovators.
Both candidates’ policies will have a major influence on North America's economic integration under the USMCA/TEMEC, particularly in fostering or limiting cross-border collaboration between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada.
2. The Role of Canadian Innovation and Green Energy
As the Prime Minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau has championed green energy and tech innovation, positioning Canada as a global leader in AI and cleantech. Canada’s tech scene, particularly in cities like Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal, has benefited from strong R&D funding and university partnerships in AI and quantum computing. This focus contrasts sharply with Trump’s proposed policies, which emphasize military tech and national interests over environmental sustainability.
At the same time, Mexico, under Claudia Sheinbaum, has yet to fully commit to green energy. Although Sheinbaum has a scientific background, her administration has shown a tendency to lean away from environmental policies in favor of more traditional energy sources. This divergence creates a complex landscape for North American collaboration in tech and sustainability.
3. Mexico’s Reforma Judicial and the Segundo Piso de la Cuarta Transformación
In Mexico, the Reforma Judicial—pushed forward by Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) and set to be implemented under Sheinbaum—poses challenges to judicial independence, which could affect the tech sector's stability and investment climate. Critics argue that the reform undermines the autonomy of judges, making Mexico less attractive to foreign investors concerned about rule of law.
Sheinbaum’s so-called Segundo Piso de la Cuarta Transformación seeks to expand AMLO’s policies, with an emphasis on digital transformation and governmental efficiency. However, the Reforma Judicial may hamper Mexico's ability to present itself as a stable investment hub for tech companies.
4. State Autonomy and Economic Growth: Florida, Texas, Jalisco, and Monterrey
State autonomy continues to play a vital role in shaping the tech ecosystems across North America. In the U.S., states like Texas, Florida, and California are leading the charge in AI development, with local governments fostering environments that encourage startups and innovation.
Similarly, in Mexico, states like Jalisco, home to Guadalajara, and Nuevo León, where Monterrey is located, are becoming major tech hubs. Querétaro is also emerging as a key player due to its investment in aerospace tech and nearshoring opportunities. The growing economic autonomy of these states suggests that the regional distribution of tech development will continue to evolve, with state-led initiatives driving much of North America’s tech growth.
5. The Future of the USMCA/TEMEC and Cross-Border Collaboration
The USMCA (or TEMEC) has enabled North American collaboration in tech, providing a platform for digital trade and the protection of intellectual property rights across the U.S., Mexico, and Canada. However, the direction this collaboration takes will depend heavily on the outcome of the 2024 elections.
A Trump presidency could usher in a more protectionist approach, limiting Mexico's role in the tech supply chain. In contrast, Harris may favor policies that encourage regional innovation and create more opportunities for small businesses. For Mexico, balancing between American protectionism and domestic political changes, such as the Reforma Judicial, will be critical to maintaining its position as a regional tech leader.
A Region at the Crossroads of Tech, Politics, and Innovation
The next few years are poised to reshape the tech landscape of North America, driven by decisions made in Washington, Mexico City, and Ottawa. Whether it's AI regulation, state autonomy, or the dynamics of the USMCA/TEMEC, the direction of North American tech will depend on regional collaboration and political decisions made by Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Claudia Sheinbaum, and Justin Trudeau.
As businesses and governments navigate this uncertain terrain, the focus must remain on innovation, sustainability, and regional cooperation—keys to ensuring North America thrives as a global tech hub.
References
- Deloitte – The Changing Face of North America’s Tech Ecosystem
Karthik Ramachandran, Deloitte - Forbes Mexico – T-MEC, El Primer Tratado en Integrar al Comercio Digital
Mauricio Hernández Armenta, Forbes Mexico - The Verge – Kamala Harris' Tech Policy Explainer
The Verge - Ars Technica – Trump Allies Want to "Make America First in AI"
Benj Edwards, Ars Technica - IT Masters Mag – El Plan de Sheinbaum para la Transformación Digital de México
Alberto Torres, IT Masters Mag - El Economista – Industria TIC en México Crece 5.9% en el Primer Trimestre de 2024
Rodrigo Riquelme, El Economista